Rays Looking to Avoid the Sweep Against the Reds: Martinez vs. Williamson
The Reds’ offense put on a show yesterday, scoring 12 runs in a convincing 12-6 win over Tampa Bay. Chase Burns pitched 5.2 innings while giving up 2 runs and striking out 8 batters, and his 15 whiffs were tied with Chase Dollander for the most in baseball during yesterday’s slate of games. He sat 97.5 MPH on his 4-Seam and landed it in the zone 63% of the time, while averaging 20 inches of iVB and throwing it for first-pitch strikes at a 73% clip. His Slider was flat out nasty, as it returned a 48% Whiff rate with 10 of his 15 total swings and misses coming from the offering, while collecting plenty of chase (41%), no pun intended. He was a buzz saw through the first 5 innings until Jonathan Aranda greeted him with a 103.8 MPH EV 2-run HR.
In terms of the offense, the Reds were led by their young stars Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart, as they combined for 8 RBI and 7 batted balls over 95 MPH. Elly himself had a 2-homer day and had 3 of the top 5 highest exit velocities in the game at 112.0 MPH, 111.6 MPH, and 108.5 MPH. The Rays put up a strong 9th inning, scoring 4 runs, which included four consecutive walks and a 2-run double by Jonny DeLuca, who has looked awesome this season. They will look to salvage the series before they welcome the Minnesota Twins on Friday.
Nick Martinez (Tampa Bay Rays)
Nick Martinez’s 31.9% Hard-Hit% since 2023, entering this season, was the lowest in baseball. He’s a high slot right-handed pitcher with a 6-pitch mix, headlined by a 78.7 MPH Changeup that returned a 41.6% Whiff% in 2024 and had a 14 Run Value back in 2023. He’s thrown over 140 innings the last 2 seasons and has had a strong start to his Rays career. Martinez has posted a 2.45 ERA over his first 22 innings to start the season despite a 4.59 FIP, but has still shown the ability to limit hard contact, as his 32.4% Hard-Hit% and 87.4 MPH Avg EV sit in the 70th percentile or higher. He’s also showing solid command and walking just 7.6% of hitters he’s faced. He’s not going to generate tons of strikeouts or whiffs, but he’s going to let his defense work behind him as he goes out and competes. As much as he gets praise for his comeback since returning from the NPB in 2022 and has carved out a quality MLB career, he might be an even better clubhouse presence and teammate. He’s increased his Changeup usage by 10%, and hitters are mustering a .083 batting average against it while whiffing 35.6% of the time. He’ll look to use that offering to mow down the Reds’ red-hot lineup.
Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds)
Brandon Williamson is a 6’6”/210 lb left-handed pitcher with a stock 3/4 arm slot and a deep 6-pitch mix, having mixed in his Changeup, 4-Seam, and Cutter 74% of the time this year, with almost identical distributions sitting in the 24-26% range. He’s going to use those three offerings primarily against right-handed batters and will save his 80.5 MPH Sweeper, which gets 15 inches of horizontal break, for the lefties. His best pitch to start the season has been his Changeup, which gets a lot of arm-side fade, returning a 40.8% Whiff%, 33.3% Hard-Hit%, and a 2 Run Value. It plays nicely off his two lower-90s fastball shapes. It’s really nice to see him back on the mound after missing all of 2025 with a UCL tear in his left elbow that required Tommy John surgery.